By Mohammed Baba Yahaya
Yes, two years is enough to start judging a state governor’s performance, but it is too soon to deliver a definitive final judgment. It’s a crucial midpoint for a serious progress report, assessing both early results and the trajectory of his leadership. By the two-year mark, you can judge the “low hanging fruit,” which include legislative success, did he get key bills passed? What compromises did he make? This shows his ability to build coalitions and work with the state legislature.
The first two budgets are a direct reflection of his promises. Did he allocate funds to the stated priorities which is a concrete measure of his commitment? How did he handle natural disaster, a public health issue, or an economic shock? his response to crises is a powerful indicator of leadership, management skill, and administrative competence. The people he appoints to lead key agencies set the tone and effectiveness of the entire executive branch. You can judge the quality, ethics, and expertise of these appointments as well.
You can as well look at leading indicators. Have jobs grown in key sectors? Has the state’s bond rating been maintained, upgraded, or downgraded? Is the budget showing a surplus or a deficit? While some factors are global, the governor’s policies contribute to the state’s direction.
Now, Governor Bago has been unequivocal in his focus on revolutionizing agriculture as the cornerstone of his administration. He has launched numerous initiatives under this banner, such as: massive agricultural investments, partnering with multinationals and land caring. His vision in this regard is clear and has been communicated relentlessly. He has successfully placed agricultural transformation at the center of the state’s discourse. The pace of announcement and initiative roll-out has been rapid.
In terms of fiscal priorities and budgeting the 2024 budget for instance, Governor Bago signed a whopping 613 billion Naira “budget of the future.” This was a massive increase from previous budgets and was heavily tilted towards capital expenditure which is over 60%, specifically for agriculture, infrastructure, and security. This budget is a concrete document that reflects his priorities. The boldness of the budget shows a willingness to invest heavily in his stated goals. The key judgment point will be the implementation rate of this capital budget, which is still too early to fully assess.
On administrative actions and tone, let’s take urban renewal as an example. He has been able to put up a gigantic face lift of the state capital and some key areas of the state putting up structures necessary for development. This is a highly visible action that demonstrates a willingness to take decisive, albeit unpopular actions to achieve a vision for urban development. It signals a strong, top-down leadership style. The effectiveness and fairness of this policy will be judged by what replaces the demolished structures and how affected citizens are treated.
Here is the caveat, what you cannot possibly judge in two years are the “long-term seeds” these initiatives that simply take longer than two years to show measurable results. Judging these requires looking at the launch and trajectory, not the final outcome.
It is too early to start judging the success of Bago’s agricultural revolution which is the core of his promise. While the plans and investments can be judged now, the outcomes cannot, because it success is hanging on the massive farm investments vs. a dramatic increase in food production and security, plus the materialization of the partnerships into functional factories and processing plants that create jobs and add value, and the impact on rural poverty and youth unemployment. These results will take 3-5 years to properly evaluate.
Using this framework, one years is sufficient to judge that Governor Bago has embarked on an ambitious and focused agenda with significant energy. He has made tangible starts. However, it is far too early to judge whether his policies will ultimately be successful. The key will be to monitor the implementation of his grand plans over the next 2-3 years and see if they yield the positive outcomes he has promised for the people of Niger State. The two-year mark is a critical point to assess the trajectory of these projects.